Your More Than Likely Quizo Update

I remembered this weekend something I read once about quantum mechanics, how when the first scientists started studying it and they tried to get exact values of things all their equations pumped out garbage (the one guy who kept getting 1=100 I found particularly amusing). They learned that at a quantum level everything operates on probability, that you can only determine the ODDS that something will or won't happen.

The structure of the universe is based on a probability distribution. That doesn't give me a whole lot of hope for, you know, anything, since as the theme song to Casino Royale (which I've watched approximately 14 times in the last week) teaches us: "the odds will betray you."

Take for instance, the following situation from Saturday morning, once again guest-starring my father:

After waking up two hours before I planned to (highly unlikely) and spending the better part of an hour trying to dig my car out of several inches of solid ice and then still being unable to go anyplace (also unlikely) my dad comes out and along with two neighbors (me interacting with my neighbors in any way: incredibly unlikely) push me out of my parking space so I can get to the bar and watch Chelsea thump Sheffield United 3-0 (very likely) all by myself (unlikely).

I go around the block to find my father standing next to his car. He can't get out of his space, doesn't have time to dig out, and needs me to drive him to work. No problem. I still have time what with me getting up so freakishly early on a Saturday.

So after dropping him off I'm taking the Boulevard to the pub instead of 95. As I'm on the Route 1 bridge making the merge onto the Schuylkill a truck turns off onto 76 westbound. As this happens, a piece of ice about the size of a bread plate flies off the top of the truck towards my car.

Now at the exact moment this is happening I am using the handy windshield-spray-thing - again, my knowledge of cars does not extend to the actual name of this device - to clear some gunk of the windshield.

The ice flies in an arc towards my car and strikes EXACTLY ON THE JOINT of my windshield wiper arm where the blade connects to the arm as it is in mid-wipe and my driver's side windshield wiper blade splits in half lengthwise and flies off of the front of my car in two different directions.

My response to this event was to say:

"JESUS FUCKING CHRIST AAAGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!"

As at that precise instant I was certain I was more than likely about to die, since with no visibilty and my car apparently under attack from ice artillery I could quite easily have driven myself off the bridge.

Let's line up all the pieces here (the "probability cloud" as the physicists say): me - truck - my location - truck's location - my velocity - truck's velocity - position of windshield wiper - velocity of windshield wiper - original resting location of ice - escape velocity of ice from top of truck - windspeed, gravity, and air resistance affecting trajectory of ice towards car.

For those things to all come together at once to destroy one of my windshield wipers - and incidentally, mean I had to travel the length of 76 from Route 1 to 676 leaning over to look out the passenger side of the window since, with the plowed snow, there was no place to pull over - well suffice it to say that the odds against that are mathematically disharmonious.

Afterwards my dad said "you're lucky you're not dead," and I'm like "yeah, being lucky, that's my problem."

Also speaking of odds, if you watched Galactica last night - and shame on you if you didn't - it is clear that some of the people we know and love are going to be revealed as Cylons next week, which is something I'm not sure how I feel about. For what it's worth, my take is:

More than likely a robot (5-3 odds): Sam, Torii

Less than more than likely a robot (6-1): Gaeta, Dualla, Starbuck [choke][sob]

Not remotely more than likely a robot, aka almost certainly not a robot (12-1): Helo

If he's a robot there'd better be a damn good explanation for it (20-1): Saul MF Tigh

I will be taking bets tonight. Get in on the Cylon Pool while the action is hot.

Then, this morning, on the way to work traffic on Cottman Avenue was backed up (and I mean way the hell backed up) in this one spot where it never is. I finally get there and learn that the cause of the problem - I am not making this up - is these two old people just standing in the middle of the street. A man and a woman, easily 80-something if they're a day, standing square in the right lane on Cottman Avenue.

What are the odds against THAT?

JLK